Cam Newton to Patriots: Here’s how the transfer affected odds, energy rankings and extra

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Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

On Sunday, the growth we had all been anticipating lastly got here to fruition — Cam Newton is headed to the New England Patriots. The former No. 1 total choose has been searching for a brand new dwelling ever since he was launched by the Carolina Panthers earlier this offseason, and the Patriots gave the impression to be the favourite to land him ever since Tom Brady determined to take his abilities to Tampa Bay. Bill Belichick will most likely nonetheless give second-year signal-caller Jarrett Stidham an opportunity to battle for the beginning job, however you need to think about the previous NFL MVP has a leg up on the competitors. Newton seems to make the Patriots higher heading into 2020, however how significantly better?

CBS Sports information scientist Stephen Oh crunched the numbers on Sunday night time, and his information reveals that the Patriots’ anticipated win complete will increase by 1.5 video games with Newton as a substitute of Stidham within the beginning lineup (with Newton it is at 9.Three video games). The Pats even have a 26.eight % higher likelihood to win the AFC East (55 %), a 29.Three % higher likelihood to make the playoffs (72.7 %), a 5.7 % higher likelihood to win the AFC (7.9 %) and a 2.9 % higher likelihood to win the Super Bowl (3.eight %). 

In regards to our simulation-based energy rating, the Patriots truly had the fifth-best document within the NFL behind Newton with a projected win complete of 9.4. The Patriots’ energy rating improved from 18th to fifth with Newton underneath heart, however the Patriots do have a tricky schedule. Their projected win proportion is 54.5 %, which is lower than the 58.Four % of energy rating simulations they win on a impartial subject vs. the remainder of the league. Their odds to win the Super bowl improved from 25-1 to 18-1 and their odds to win the AFC went from 10-1 to 7.5-1. 

Interestingly sufficient, the improved odds for New England did not impression the Baltimore Ravens‘ odds to win all of it, that are at 13.Three %. The Ravens, in keeping with Oh, are the perfect worth based mostly on the simulations with a league-leading 23.Four % likelihood to win all of it.

The Patriots’ signing of Newton does not simply make them higher, it additionally will increase their ceiling as a reputable contender. It can be a tricky process with the Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs each being projected to win double-digit video games, nevertheless it does seem Newton can get New England to the postseason, which supplies the Patriots not less than an opportunity at one other Lombardi trophy. 

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