As the world hurtles toward critical climate tipping points, the politics meant to prevent them are themselves undergoing rapid and often turbulent change. Against this backdrop, the “State of Climate Politics Forum 2024,” convened by the climate think tank E3G, gathers diplomats, policymakers, investors, and civil society leaders to assess where global climate ambition stands-and where it might potentially be headed next.
Taking place in a year marked by geopolitical fractures, contested energy transitions, and intensifying climate impacts, the forum serves as both barometer and sounding board. Participants will dissect the fallout from recent UN climate talks, evaluate the shifting influence of major emitters, and examine how economic headwinds and security concerns are reshaping national climate strategies.
Far from a technical discussion confined to emissions targets, the 2024 edition puts political realities at the center: the rise of climate-linked industrial policy, mounting pressure on multilateral institutions, the role of emerging economies, and the risks of a fragmented global response. In doing so, the E3G forum aims to clarify not just whether the world is on track to meet its climate goals, but whether the politics required to get there are still within reach.
Global climate diplomacy at a crossroads inside the State of Climate Politics Forum 2024
As major economies recalibrate their domestic agendas in an era of polycrisis, negotiators are grappling with how to keep 1.5°C within reach while geopolitical trust erodes.Inside the Forum, diplomats, mayors and investors are testing new alignments: coalitions of the willing around fossil fuel phase-out, clean energy deployment and loss and damage delivery are emerging alongside more traditional blocs. The result is a fragmented, experimental diplomatic landscape where informal “green clubs” and sectoral deals often move faster than the formal UNFCCC track, yet still depend on it for legitimacy and accountability. Participants stressed that without stronger links between international pledges and domestic political cycles, even the most aspiring announcements risk becoming diplomatic theater.
Conversations repeatedly returned to leverage: who has it, how it is indeed used and where it is constrained. Countries with fiscal space and technology are being pressed to convert climate goodwill into concrete finance, while climate-vulnerable states are refining their strategies to punch above their economic weight. Meanwhile, non-state actors are no longer mere observers; subnational governments, central banks and civil society networks are shaping negotiating red lines in real time. Key trends discussed include:
- Reframing climate as security policy to unlock higher-level diplomatic attention and resources.
- Green industrial policy races reshaping trade rules and alliance structures.
- Debt, climate and development bargains as the new front line of North-South diplomacy.
| Coalition | Core Focus | Diplomatic Lever |
|---|---|---|
| High Ambition Group | 1.5°C alignment | Moral pressure & public narrative |
| Finance Innovators | Debt & climate finance | MDB reform & blended capital |
| Transition Industrials | Clean tech supply chains | Trade rules & standards |
How shifting alliances and emerging economies are reshaping E3G’s strategic climate agenda
Once defined by a binary North-South dynamic, climate diplomacy is now being re-written by coalitions that cut across geography, income and ideology. From Brazil’s leadership in the Amazon and UAE’s role as a financier of green infrastructure, to Kenya’s push for debt-climate swaps, pivotal states are recasting what “climate leadership” looks like. E3G is recalibrating its engagement to work with these actors not just as recipients of support,but as agenda-setters capable of shifting global rules on finance,trade and security. This means backing coalitions that can unlock reform of multilateral development banks, align industrial policy with 1.5°C pathways,and reframe resilience as a hard security priority.The objective is clear: anchor climate ambition within the core interests of rising powers, not at the margins.
In practice, this strategic pivot translates into new diplomatic priorities, sharper political analysis and targeted partnerships that speak to domestic development narratives as much as global climate goals. E3G is investing in convening roles that bring together reformist governments, progressive businesses and civic leaders from key emerging economies, building trust and shared leverage ahead of critical moments like COP30 and the next replenishments of climate finance mechanisms. These evolving alliances are also reshaping risk calculations in Brussels, Washington and Beijing, forcing traditional powers to respond to a more plural, competitive and possibility-rich climate order.
- New power centres are driving climate ambition through industrial strategies and regional blocs.
- Climate finance is increasingly negotiated as part of debt, trade and security packages.
- Just transition narratives are being authored in the Global South,not imported from the North.
- Issue-based coalitions are outperforming traditional, bloc-based diplomacy.
| Region | Key Role | E3G Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Latin America | Nature & supply chains | Forest finance, green trade rules |
| Africa | Debt & resilience | Debt swaps, adaptation diplomacy |
| South Asia | Transition risk | Coal phase-down, social protection |
| Middle East | Capital flows | Scaling clean infrastructure finance |
From pledges to power structures unpacking the political barriers to rapid decarbonisation
Governments now trade in glossy commitments and net zero soundbites, but the real story lies in who writes the rules behind closed doors. Beneath every climate pledge sit entrenched interests, from fossil incumbents defending sunk assets to ministries of finance fixated on short-term fiscal balances.These actors exploit opaque regulation, captured advisory bodies and fragmented portfolios to slow-walk change while maintaining a façade of ambition.As a result, public mandates for climate action are often diluted in the machinery of the state, where veto players, budget gatekeepers and cautious regulators set the true pace of decarbonisation.
- Who decides what “feasible” climate policy looks like?
- Who benefits from delays, loopholes and weak enforcement?
- Who is excluded from shaping long-term investment priorities?
| Barrier | Power Base | Impact on Transition |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory capture | Industry lobbies | Standards weakened, timelines stretched |
| Fiscal conservatism | Treasuries & central banks | Underinvestment in green infrastructure |
| Procedural vetoes | Upper chambers, regional elites | Flagship laws diluted or blocked |
Shifting from performative climate diplomacy to effective decarbonisation therefore means contesting the institutional wiring of political power: who sets risk assumptions, who allocates capital, and who defines what counts as “credible” policy. When climate goals reach the level of budget rules, grid codes and planning law, they collide with existing hierarchies that were built around fossil-era priorities. Redesigning those hierarchies-through independent climate governance, mandate reforms for financial authorities, and stronger civic oversight-will determine whether national pledges become binding constraints on power, or remain aspirational texts that the status quo can easily survive.
Policy prescriptions for 2025 and beyond what governments financiers and civil society must do now
As the geopolitical calendar resets after 2024,the next wave of climate action will depend on whether national budgets,international finance and public mandates converge around a shared transition story. Governments must hard-wire climate resilience and decarbonisation into fiscal rules, trade policy and industrial strategy, treating emissions cuts as an economic security imperative rather than a discretionary add-on. This requires aligning nationally determined contributions with public investment plans,phasing out fossil subsidies on a clear timeline,and creating credible transition pathways for exposed regions and workers.Civil society,in turn,must sharpen its role as a watchdog and coalition-builder,translating scientific thresholds into political red lines and ensuring that marginalised communities shape – rather than simply endure – the redesign of energy,food and transport systems.
Finance will be the hinge between ambition and implementation, and the next two years are decisive for resetting risk and reward signals in global markets. Public development banks, sovereign wealth funds and private investors need to synchronise around science-based transition plans that close the gap between rhetoric and portfolio allocations. Priority moves include:
- Governments: lock in net-zero-aligned standards for public procurement, infrastructure and trade; reform financial regulation to price climate risk; and broker new North-South compacts on debt, resilience and clean technology deployment.
- Financiers: adopt mandatory transition plans, exit unabated fossil assets on fixed schedules, and scale blended finance vehicles that de-risk clean projects in emerging markets.
- Civil society: monitor delivery against pledges, litigate where rights and commitments are breached, and build cross-border narratives that link climate action to jobs, health and security.
| Actor | 2025 Priority |
|---|---|
| Government | Climate-proof budgets and trade deals |
| Finance sector | Shift capital from fossil to clean assets |
| Civil society | Enforce accountability and social legitimacy |
Concluding Remarks
As the State of Climate Politics Forum 2024 made clear, the debate has shifted decisively from whether to act to how fast and how fairly the transition can be delivered. The task now is less about setting distant goals and more about navigating the political realities that determine whether those goals are met.
E3G’s central message from this year’s discussions is that climate policy has moved into the core of economic and security decision‑making. Choices on industrial strategy, fiscal policy and international relations are increasingly inseparable from climate outcomes. That convergence raises the stakes: progress can accelerate rapidly when climate ambition is aligned with social and economic interests, but political backlash can just as quickly stall or reverse gains.Looking ahead, the forum underscored three tests for the coming year: whether governments can protect households while phasing out fossil fuels; whether emerging green industries can be scaled without deepening geopolitical rifts; and whether international climate diplomacy can deliver tangible cooperation in an era of growing fragmentation.
The answers will not come from technical solutions alone,but from building durable political coalitions capable of withstanding shocks. If there was a unifying thread running through the 2024 forum, it was this: climate policy is no longer a niche domain. It is the arena in which the future shape of economies, societies and global power relations will be decided – and the window for shaping that future on climate‑safe terms is narrowing fast.
